Domestic Political Violence Forecast Model

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Map of Countries at Risk for Increases in Political Violence, 2011-2015.
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Created in collaboration with Professor Cingranelli at the Political Science Department, SUNY Binghamton University and Professors Sam Bell and Amanda Murdie at the Department of Political Science, Kansas State University, the Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR) Model of Political Violence forecasts political violence levels at quarterly and yearly intervals into the future. The model enables policymakers, particularly in the Combatant Commands, to proactively plan for instances of increased political violence, with implications for resource allocation and intelligence asset assignment.

We began by operationalizing many of the causes of insurgency, and after examining many possible combinations of factors identified in the military doctrine and in the political science literature, we concluded that the magnitude of future political violence directed towards the state is heightened by coercion, often thought of as violations of physical integrity rights, and by coordination, or the tools by which groups can associate and organize against the state. Conversely, we argue that the magnitude of political violence is lessened by capacity, defined as the ability of the state to project itself throughout its territory.

News

  • November 9, 2010 Milcord announces release of Political Violence Forecast Model Arrow right.gif press release | blog
  • January 19, 2011 Model Forecasts Civil Unrest Against Governments by Peter Fowler, Newsroom America
  • January 20, 2011 Reuters article announces American system can predict the political turmoil in countries 5 years before
  • March 2011 Perspectives on Terrorism Journal (Volume 5, No 1) lists Milcord Domestic Political Violence Forecast Model in the early warning category along with International Crisis Group and Nightwatch
The civil unrest in the summer 2011 in the United Kingdom was successfully predicted by the PSIR Political Violence Forecast model.


Increased Political Violence Predictions for 2011-2015 - Very High Risk Predictions
Rank Country
1 United Kingdom
2 Israel
3 Sri Lanka
4 Iran
5 Colombia
6 Zimbabwe
7 South Africa
8 Haiti
9 Egypt
10 Philippines
11 Guinea-Bissau
12 Venezuela
13 Chile
14 Syria
15 Chad
16 Belarus
17 Guinea
18 Kyrgyzstan
19 Greece

References

  • Cassani, L., Caglayan, A., Amanda, M., and Bell, S. Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism - Forecasting Political Violence, 2nd International Conference on Cross-Cultural Decision Making in 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics 2012 (AHFE 2012), San Francisco, California, USA, July 21-25, 2012.
  • Bell, S., Cingranelli, D., Murdie, A. and Caglayan, A. (2011) Coercion, Capacity, and Coordination: A Risk Assessment Model of the Determinants of Political Violence, Montesquieu Institute in the Hague, November 2011.
  • Cassani, L., Caglayan, A., Das, S., Alavedra, J., Morgan, W., Murdie, A., Bell, S., and Cingranelli, D. (2011) Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism, AFRL Phase II Final Report, October 2011.
  • Murdie, A. (2011) Coercion, Capacity, and Coordination: A Risk Assessment Model of the Determinants of Political Violence, Forecasting Political Instability Workshop, Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, DC, March 31, 2011.
  • Cingranelli, D., Bell, S., Murdie, A. , Caglayan, A., Stroh, L. and Burke, D. (2011) Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism - Forecasting Political Violence, HSCB Focus 2011 Conference, Chantilly, VA, February 8-10, 2011.
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