Risk-based Route Planning
From MilcordWiki
demo video blog publicationsOverview
Risk-based Route Planning is a Google Maps-based mobile application that enables the user to plan safe routes by avoiding known and predicted hotspots learned from patterns of past incidents. The solution was developed for use in Baghdad, Iraq, but is easily customized to operate effectively in any operational environment.
Need
- With the operational environment increasingly moving to urban terrain, traveling by road is an increasingly dangerous endeavor due to the treat from Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs)
- Commanders require the ability to visualize and understand the effect of adversarial tactics (to include TTPs relating to IED emplacement) on route planning operations and be able to quickly assess mission risk across competing courses of action
Approach
Our approach consists of:
- Learning adversary tactics, techniques and procedures
- Using models to forecast risk
- Identifying known hotspots as well as predicted hotspots based on learned risk patterns
- Providing a tactical intelligence application for use in risk-based route planning
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Benefits
- Faster adaptation to adversary tactics due to system learning
- Increased productivity in assessing the effect of adversary tactics on plans
- Reduced mission risk due to integration of doctrine and events
- More effective training of personnel pre-deployment on route planning to consider adversarial attack patterns
Applications
- Sense and Respond Logistics: Apply knowledge from past experience learned from historical patterns to predict problem areas associated with scheduled events
- Location Based Services: Commercial transportation logistics and planning
- Competitive Advantages:
- Unlike battlespace incident reporting and statistics, we learn models and patterns and predict behavior at locations with no prior incidents
- Risk-based Route Planning brings a higher level of automation to IPB process planning and implementation
References
- Caglayan, A. Military Logistics Summit milcord blog. August 9, 2009.
- Caglayan, A. Risk-Based Route Planning for Sense and Respond Logistics, Military Logistics Summit 2009, Sheraton Premiere at Tysons Corner, Vienna, VA, June 8-11, 2009.
abstract | blog
- Caglayan, A., Burke, D., Eaton, G. and Meessen, Y. (2008) Course of Action Forecasting, Technical Report, DTIC AD Number: ADB338206. US Army TEC, Alexandria, VA.
