Abstract: A System Dynamics Model of Counterinsurgency in Southern Afghanistan

From MilcordWiki

To understand the complexity and viability of modern day insurgencies and the effects of counterinsurgency measures, we are integrating research involving the root causes of the insurgency in Southern Afghanistan and counterinsurgency doctrine, as outlined in the Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24, in a system dynamics model. Our model focuses on Helmand and Kandahar Provinces. In identifying feedback loops pertaining to the relationships between the correlating factors of instability and insurgent support in Southern Afghanistan, we also conceptualize counterinsurgency levers, such as those affecting essential services, governance, host nation security forces, and economic development, and determine areas of leverage for mitigating the insurgent movement. Our approach supports analysts, planners, and practitioners involved in asymmetric operations by providing operationally relevant information on the relationships between factors driving the insurgency and leverage points identified through counterinsurgency measures, helping to build a more effective campaign design for complex operations.