Adaptive Risk-based Convoy Route Planning

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Adaptive Risk-based Convoy Route Planning

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Mission Find the safest routes that take into account local social and cultural mores, and long-term experience with local conditions.
Sponsor Image:ONR_Logo.JPG [ONR]

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Overview

Adaptive risk-based convoy route planner forecasts future conditions from past and current conditions, allows the logistics planner to determine optimal routes using both the current and forecasted conditions, and enables a dynamic re-planning capability in-the-field that responds to real-time events by forecasting the likely downstream impact of the events and adapts the plan to optimize the likelihood of mission success.

Need

Adaptive Sense & Respond Logistics measures the success of the logistics supply chain by its adaptability to changing, unpredictable logistics demand and the speed of response. To be successful in a region where hostile actors are actively seeking to disrupt our supply lines through asymmetric means, the logistics decision maker needs to minimize mission risks in order to maximize the logistics performance metrics. However, identifying safe routes through an unfriendly locale requires much more than knowledge of local roads and obstacles. For example, awareness of native customs, knowledge of patterns of pedestrian and vehicular traffic, and expected reaction to foreigners’ presence are all factors in deciding on the safest path.

Approach

  • Forecasting model: Build a trafficability model based pattern detection and traffic density and social event forecasting method and incorporate the trafficability model into Milcord's Risk-based Route Planning solution.
  • Optimization algorithm: Extend current routing algorithms to minimize the minimize cost function according to forecasted route conditions
  • Plan optimization: In addition to conventional minimal time and shortest distance type routes, enable the optimization of a route plan to provide lowest risk route, best departure time, least variance solutions
  • Re-planning: In addition to conventional re-routes due to structural constraints during a route plan execution, enable the re-planning of a route plan in real time for changes requiring a re-plan
  • Plan alerts: In addition to conventional unfiltered delivery of traffic conditions and events during a route plan execution, enable the intelligent route plan alerts in real time to provide alerts for anomalies with respect to assumed conditions
  • Traffic forecasts: In addition to conventional broadcasting of traffic conditions, provide traffic reports for pre-mission briefings, route planning and training activities


Before - Shortest Distance
Before - Shortest Distance
After - Best Travel Time
After - Best Travel Time

Benefits

  • Provides more accurate short-term traffic forecasts
  • Outperforms routing algorithms using current conditions
  • Computes mission success, provides plan alerts and re-planning decision

Applications

  • Sense and Respond Logistics: Apply knowledge from past experience learned from historical patterns of traffic to predict trouble spots associated with scheduled events
  • Location Based Services: Commercial transportation logistics and planning
  • Competitive Advantages:
    • Unlike current route planning solutions, we build a model by learning social behavior patterns, use this model to forecast future behavior based on current conditions, and minimize the mission utility function based on the forecasted conditions.

See Also

References

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