Risk-based Route Planning

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Risk-based Route Planning

Image:Routeplanning.gif

Mission Find the shortest and safest routes. Avoid known hotspots and predicted hotspots learned from patterns of past incidents.
Sponsor Image:AGC.jpg [Army Geospatial Center]
Demonstration Risk-based Route Planning - Baghdad

Check out Demo!

Overview

Risk-based Route Planning is a Google Maps-based mobile application allowing the user to plan safe routes in Baghdad, Iraq by avoiding known hotspots and predicted hotspots learned from patterns of past incidents.

Need

  • Iraqi roads are a dangerous place with insurgents concealing explosive devices in median, buried under road or hidden in roadside debris
  • Commanders need to see the effect of adversary tactics on their plans
  • Commanders need a quick assessment of mission risk for competing route options

Approach

  • Learn adversary tactics, techniques and procedures
  • Use models to forecast risk
  • Identify known hotspots as well as predicted hotspots based on learned risk patterns
  • Provide tactical intelligence application
Before - Shortest Path
Before - Shortest Path
After - Minimal Risk (go to route)
After - Minimal Risk (go to route)

Benefits

  • Faster adaptation to adversary tactics due to system learning
  • Increased productivity in assessing the effect of adversary tactics on plans
  • Reduced mission risk due to integration of doctrine and events
  • More effective training of personnel before deployment

Applications

  • Sense and Respond Logistics: Apply knowledge from past experience learned from historical patterns of traffic to predict trouble spots associated with scheduled events
  • Location Based Services: Commercial transportation logistics and planning
  • Competitive Advantages:
    • Unlike battlespace incident reporting and statistics, we learn models and patterns and predict behavior at locations with no prior incidents
    • Route Planning brings a higher level of automation to IPB process planning and implementation

References

  • Caglayan, A. Military Logistics Summit milcord blog. August 9, 2009.
  • Caglayan, A., Burke, D., Eaton, G. and Meessen, Y. (2008) Course of Action Forecasting, Technical Report, DTIC AD Number: ADB338206. US Army TEC, Alexandria, VA.
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